When Does Terrorism Occur: Game-Theoretic Analysis and Offense-Defense Balance

Offense-defense theory argues that wars are more likely in offense-dominant periods. I study how this claim can be challenged when it comes to making predictions about terrorism. To do so, I consider a model of continuous-time conflict between a status quo state and a terrorist, who develops offensive military technology and has private information on its aggressiveness. I characterize two measures of offense-defense balance, and show that a greater offense advantage in the balance is not associated with a higher risk of terrorism. This paper supports the critics of offense-defense theory, and provides insights into understanding when terrorism occurs.

Hitotsubashi University

2021-12

English(eng)

departmental bulletin paper

VoR

10.15057/hje.2021003

2436-097X

AA12909202

Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics

62

2

59

73

Vol. 62, no. 2(Dec. 2021)

https://hdl.handle.net/10086/72504